Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Syracuse

The answer to yesterday's question was the Syracuse/Oklahoma game. Good news is nobody got it wrong. Bad news is nobody guessed. Today I'm thinking about taking the day off, but I'll consult a few buddies of mine to get their take on today's games. If I like something I'll post it by 5 PM ET.

Oh and by the way, if you had money on the Nets last night you're an idiot. They lost by 29. Talk about swinging and missing.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Question of the day

I have to admit, it was hard for me to watch basketball yesterday without having any money on the line. Sign of an addict? Absolutely. That's why I had to put money on the second half line of the North Carolina game. I took the Tarheels -2 which looked great until Oklahoma had a 9-0 run in 1:32 with under 5 to play. But in the end UNC got it done and won the second half by 3. It's never easy.

I often check out other sports books to see if they offer any "expert" advice on an upcoming game and one site I've found mildly appealing is thesportsadvisors.com. There are about 7 or 8 guys on here that do the same thing I do here on Trapline except they charge for their picks. They do however give away one free pick a day, usually on a game they like but don't have much confidence in. I'd say their free picks hit 60-40, which is better than flipping a coin. Anyway, the guy that runs the site is this genuine "bad ass" named Steve Budin. He's straight up gangster, as in the mafia gangster type. He's the type of guy that makes you wonder how many arms he's shattered and lives he's arranged to be taken. Regardless, Budin and his boys know what they're talking about and though I've never purchased their picks, it's not a bad investment for a clueless higher end gambler.

They're not perfect by any means though and nearly every guy on the site missed what Budin had as his Sweet 16 game of the year. This game according to Budin was a lock because a betting group (perhaps a fellow gang affiliate) who call themselves the "Cali Cartel," said it was a lock. Don't quote me on this, but Budin made it sound like the Cartel only release or bet on 15-20 games a year, games they are 100% in love with. Budin was 3-0 with his SPECIAL CALI CARTEL releases ($50 for the single pick) until he completely swung and missed over the weekend. So my question to you handful of Trapliners is... what game did Budin have as a lock?

Whoever gets the question right will get more free picks from me tomorrow.

Today I like one game and one game only.

$$$$ Nets -3 vs. Bucks

Here we have two teams that have been playing like garbage of late. The Bucks are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last 5, and the Nets are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 and 1-4 SU in their last 5. Couple kickers here that make me like the nets: 1. The Nets were the human cover until Devin Harris was injured almost a month ago. Harris returned to the starting lineup last week and should be close 100 % by now and back in the rhythm of things. 2. The Nets are at home and the Bucks don't play inspired ball on the road. Not only are the Bucks 0-5 ATS (2 were home games) in their last 5 games, they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. Look for Vince Carter and Devin Harris to go off as they shoot down the hobbling Bucks in a route.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Day of rest

Well even after two losing days in a row I had the audacity to get a little cocky by going against the obvious and betting against a red Nova club. Whether it was Pitt up by four with three to play and the ball (Nova gets an and 1) or Nova's bone headed in-bounds pass with 10 seconds to go, both teams seemed to have the game won at one point or another. But in the end my team lost and my bankroll took a small hit. I did however make a little bonus cash on Abby's hockey pick in the Carolina Hurricanes. Thanks for that pick Abby and keep the hockey talk coming, especially since it's almost playoff time.

Today I think I'm going to sit back and root against Michigan State. I'm not confident in either of the games today and I've been focusing on college basketball so much that I haven't paid enough attention to bet on the NBA. That means no picks today, but i'll be back tomorrow with something.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Let us try this again

Ughh... disgusting picks the last two days. Let's see if we can chalk up a couple of wins today.


$$$$ UConn - 5 1/2 vs Mizz

The only thing that should hold the Huskies back from covering this spread is the fact that I have money on them. Missouri just isn't that good and they are finally going to play a team that won't give up 100 points. Take Uconn in a route.

$$$ Pitt -2 vs Nova

I think the world has their money on Nova today but I'm going to stick with the Panthers. Nova doesn't play well when they are at a size disadvantage down low, and today the biggest and most physical player on the court will be wearing a Pitt uniform in DeJuan Blair. Pitt will win a close one... again.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Swing and a miss

Yesterday was about as bad as it gets as far as bad predictions go. Purdue was never really in the game and Pitt doesn't like winning games that don't come down to the wire. Tonight we'll try again and see if we can at least nick something.

$$$$ Gonzaga + 8 1/2 vs. UNC

These teams are a lot alike. Neither play defense, both have a good Caucasian big man and a pesky black point guard. Jeremy Pargo is no Ty Lawson, but in all honesty he's close. Pargo will be able to contain a hobbled Lawson and the Zags shoot the ball well enough to keep them within double digits. If the Zags shoot really well then they could pull off the upset. Take the Zags losing a close one.

$$$ Oklahoma in a pick em vs. Syracuse

I've watched both these teams play a number of games this year and after minutes of pondering this matchup I've concluded that the Sooners have the advantage here. Syracuse is a solid ball club and Johnny Flynn is one of the better guards/game breakers I've seen all year, but I don't see the post players of the Cuse stopping Blake Griffin. The Syracuse big men are big and mildly athletic, but they can't catch, finish, or guard someone without fouling. They really have a tough time containing their retard strength and that's going to be a major problem against Godzilla Griffin. Also, Oklahoma shoots the ball well from the outside and Syracuse only plays zone defense. Take the Sooners in close one.

$$$ Arizona + 9 1/2 vs. Lousville

I have to admit I'm surprised Louisville has made it this far. I thought that of all the 1 seeds they were the weakest and have been overrated all year. The fact is if Terrence Williams doesn't hit some 3's tonight they will lose. Every game they play from here on out hinges on his performance. Arizona is athletic, shoots well, and has solid post play. They are good enough to give Lousville a game.

$$$ Kansas + 1 1/2 vs. Michigan State

State hammered Kansas earlier in the year meaning this is a revenge game for the Jayhawks. I remember watching Kansas struggle early in the year and thinking how bad they were going to be. But the second half of the season Jayhawks are a different and MUCH better team than they were during the first half. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldridge are twice the players of anyone on USC's roster, and it took State the entire 40 minutes to put them away. Play the Jayhawks winning outright.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Groin shot

Wow was yesterday frustrating. The Celtics cover in a comeback but the Jazz fail to stay within three thanks to the horrendous play of sloth-mo Mehmet Okur. He was BRUTAL! He missed three straight free throws and air balled the final two shots of the game. Parlay his play with the Knicks blowing a 16 point lead and we've got a pretty unlucky night. I will not bet on the Knicks EVER AGAIN. It's hard to tell when teams like the Knicks are going to take a shit or hit a homerun and I'm tired of guessing. They lose to the Clippers at home and beat the Heat on the road the night after losing in three OT's! I should know better than to bet on teams that are bad and bi-polar.

Tonight let's see if we can stop the bleeding and my bitching by betting on the BIG DANCE.

$$$$ Purdue + 7 1/2 vs. Uconn

Purdue just might win this game. For the first time in the tourny Uconn is really going to miss Dyson. Purdue will be in Husky shorts all night and Robbie Hummel will give a lazy Uconn defense fits. 6'10 JaJuan Johnson will do just enough to disrupt Thebeet and help the Boilermakers pull off an unexpected upset. Don't underestimate Purdue, dees boys can play.

$$$$ Pitt -7 vs. Xavier

Pitt's struggled a bit in their opening round games, but they won't struggle tonight against an average Xavier club. Xavier's defense looked great against Wisconsin because they were playing Wisconsin. They are outmatched at nearly every position and they won't have an answer for Blair. Look for Xavier to hang around in the first half before losing in double digit fashion.

Good teams getting points :)

We split yesterday as Baylor continued playing out of their minds and Penn State proved why the SEC only got three teams in the big dance compared to the Big Ten's 7.

Today we venture back into the black and sprinkled white world of the NBA.

$$$$ Celtics + 3 1/2 @ Orlando

Guess what? The Celtics are healthy again! And Jameer Nelson is still out for the Season for Orlando! And the Celts are still the defending champions! And they are getting points! Take the Celts and run with the points as Garnett gets enough playing time to help his team win outright.

$$$$ Jazz + 3 @ Phoenix

Simply put, the Jazz are a much better team than the Suns. As long as the Jazz are healthy they don't struggle on the road. And if your bookie offers it, take the over on Derron Williams for total points + assists. I got him at 32. He could be over that by halftime.

$$$$ Knicks - 7 vs. Clippers

The Knicks are coming off a tough loss at home against the Magic two nights ago and will be looking to put a beating on a Clippers team that's used to taking one. Take the Knicks in a lady of the night BLOWOUT.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Making the NIT interesting

Carmello was easy yesterday but we got really lucky with Billups barely going over his number of 27 1/2. For those of you who didn't see the game, the Nuggets were down by 3 with 6 seconds left and Billups sitting at 18 and 8 (26). Instead of letting the Nuggets shoot a three, the Suns fouled Billups intentionally and he netted both free throws. What a cover!

Tonight Tony Parker's player prop for points + assists is inflated to 31 1/1 because he's playing the Warriors. Like I said yesterday, Parker's gone OVER in six straight but this is the first game his number has been in the 30's. If I knew tonight's game were going to be close I'd jump all over Parker, but I have a feeling its going to be a blowout and Parker won't play much in the second half. Either way I don't think it's a bad bet.

The NIT has been doing a nice job of appetizing me until the big games on this weekend, and tonight I plan on betting on both of the quarter final games.

$$$$ Auburn -3 vs. Baylor

Up until the Big 12 tournament I had made a lot of money betting AGAINST Baylor almost every game they played on the road. I was probably 6-0 until I bet against them when they beat Kansas in the first round of their conference tournament. Since then they've been hot, murdering teams at home and on the road in the NIT. But this HAS TO STOP. And tonight it will against an Auburn team that has defended their home court as well as anyone the second half of the season. The Tigers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at home. Baylor's streak ends tonight in blowout fashion.

$$$ Penn State + 10 1/2 @ Florida

I know it's tough to play in Gainesville, but this line should be covered by a Penn State team who does something that no team in the SEC has seen all season. THEY PLAY DEFENSE. I think Florida will still win the game, but Penn State will slow the tempo and make it close. Look for Taylor Battle's last second heroics to fall short tonight as the Gators win by 2.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Player Prop Me

From the words of George Costanza, "I'm back in business baby!" Kind of. Two weeks away from this site has allowed me to recollect and think about where I make the bulk of my money betting. It all changes really, (as does my "bulk") but lately I've made some nice bank on NBA player props. Every night I bet on two players to go OVER their set line. Those two are Chris Paul, who's usually around 34 1/2 total points + assists, and Tony Parker at either 23 points or 28 1/2 points + assists. Paul has gone over 4 of his last 5 games and Parker has gone over in 6 straight! This is easy money! Paul will always get near his number, and Parker's gonna keep on scoring as long as Ginobli is out.

Since I don't like many games today I'll give you a few play props to think about.

$$$$ Chauncey Billups OVER 27 1/2 points + assists @ Phoenix

Billups has average a combined 30 in his previous two games against Phoenix. The thing about the Suns is they don't like defense, so, they don't play any.

For the same reason I also like...

$$$$ Carmello Anthony OVER 23 points @ Phoenix

Anthony should easily reach his 22.3 PPG average tonight and if he doesn't then Chauncey is a lock for his over. Betting two players to have a slightly above average night against the worst defense in the league is a good way to hedge. One of these guys should hit. If we go 1-1, ehh, fine. But I can't see the Suns keeping both of them under their average.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

TRAPLINE NOTE

To all trapliners:

I've been swamped with work and a bothered by a relentless cold/flu/fever for over a week. This site will be up and running again by MONDAY. Sorry for the recent time off!!


-Miyagi

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Quick Picks

Hot streak came to an end last night after going 1-3 yesterday.

$$$$ Bucks - 3 1/2 vs. Knicks

$$$ Mavericks + 6 1/2 @ Phoenix

Monday, March 9, 2009

Picks here... get em while they're hot!

2-0 yesterday and a solid 10-3 on the week after yesterdays two NBA quick picks hit.

Today let's continue rolling in the NBA.

$$$$ Hornets - 1 1/2 @ Atlanta

Since the return of David West the Hornets have been almost unbeatable. They are the winner of 5 straight and tonight they will extend that streak in a near pick em against an overrated Hawks squad. Bibby will struggle like every other guard when in comes to guarding Chris Paul, and David West will contribute with another ho hum double double. Look for the Hornets to pull away late in the fourth and win by 5.

$$$$ St Mary.s +7 1/2 vs. Gonzaga

This is the WCC and a near must win for St. Marys who now has their all-American in Patty Mills back in the lineup. These teams have already met twice this year, both times Gonzaga won (by 2 and 7) and both times Mills was out. Actually St. Marys was ahead by 8 @ Gonzaga before he broke his hand just before half time. Even though St. Marys looked horrific last night against Portland (the main reason why the line is at 7 1/2) I think they cover and win outright.

$$$ Pistons +2 vs. Orlando

Orlando is coming off an impressive win against the still Garnet-less Celtics, now they have to go play a Detroit team who they lost to at home just weeks ago. The Pistons are playing like they used to be known for (Protecting home court, losing close and sometimes winning on the road) and will have no problem beating the Magic for the second time in two weeks.

$$$ Lakers - 2 1/2 @ Portland

Portland is young and good, but LA is wise and better. Look for Kobe to bring his A game against Brandon Roy and lead his team to a double digit victory.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Quick NBA Picks

2-0 yesterday, here's who I like today.

$$$$ Spurs - 4 1/2 vs. Phoenix

$$$$ Nets - 4 1/2 vs. Knicks

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Weekend Update

2-1 yesterday on my quick picks brings us to 6-3 on the week. I was too caught up in Michigan's miraculous comeback and tourny clinching victory over Minnesota to make my early picks, so here's who I like later today.

$$$$ Kansas -8 vs. Texas

Texas is overrated to begin with and Kansas will be looking to take some aggression out after getting embarrassed early in the week by Texas Tech. Kansas beat Missouri by 30 in the Jayhawks last home game and they could do the same today against a poor Texas club. Look for the Jawhawks to win in a blowout.

$$$ Nebraskas +5 1/2 @ Baylor

I've made a living off betting against Baylor this year and I don't see any reason to stop. Nebraska is a much better team at home but I think they can hang around in this game if not win outright.


*** WARNING TRAPLINE ***

LSU +2 @ Aburn

It's hard not to like the best team in the SEC getting points to anyone in-conference, but this line feels too good to be true. Auburn is a lot like Washing State in that they have poor records but can beat almost anybody on their home floor. Auburn might be the best play here, but I'd stay away.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Quick Picks

Sorry, I don't have time for any elaborate analysis today but here's who I like...

$$$$ USC - 13 vs. Oregon

$$$ Penn State +1 vs. Illinois

$$$ South Carolina - 2 1/2 vs. Tennessee

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Nickle and Diming it

4-0 in the last two days and today we look to tip-toe to a sweet 6-0 with a couple of smaller picks. I'm not crazy about any games tonight so I'm only releasing two $$ bets. There's no need to get greedy right now...

$$ Kansas - 10 1/2 @ Texas Tech

Kansas has been one of my favorite teams to be on this year. They've been on fire down the stretch and should have no problem crushing a horrific Texas Tech squad. Any loss or slip up could cost the Jayhawks a lock as a 2 seed in the tournament, so don't look for a let down here.

$$ Florida in a pick em @ Miss St.

Florida has, HAS to have this game if they want even a shot to get into the big dance. Mississippi State has lost three straight and four of five, including a double digit loss at home to Auburn. Florida wins a close one.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

We got ONE

Last night turned out to be easy as Notre Dame played like they have all season in route to a double digit loss against a solid Nova. Let's see if we can't win back to back days and get a bit of a winning streak going.

$$$$ Detroit -3 vs. Denver

Carmelo out means bad news for the Nuggets, Iverson out means good news for the Pistons. Chauncy Billups is back in town but him alone won't be enough to take down Rip and a gelling Detroit squad. Pistons pull away in the 4th and win by 10.

$$$ Ohio State -1 @ Iowa

As of right now Ohio State is in the tourny, but if they lose tonight it could put them on the outside looking in. They NEED this game, just like the NEEDED the Northwestern game they urinated away. Tonight they get up early and hang on in a close one.

$$$ Magic -7 vs. Suns

The Suns will be without their two best players in Nash and Stoudamire and they struggle against most teams on the road. Dwight Howard will humble Shaq in a double digit romping.

Monday, March 2, 2009

Weekend Suicide

I don't think we need a recap on what happened this weekend. 1-7 is bad, and if you still have a bankroll you're lucky.

Today I like one game, and one game only...

$$$$ Villanove +3 @ Notre Dame

Villanova lost to a poor Georgetown team this weekend and Notre Dame almost beat UConn. Those are the two reasons why Nova is getting points here. I'm just going to pretend those games never happened. Nova is a lot better than Notre Dame and they should win outright tonight.