Making the NIT interesting

Carmello was easy yesterday but we got really lucky with Billups barely going over his number of 27 1/2. For those of you who didn't see the game, the Nuggets were down by 3 with 6 seconds left and Billups sitting at 18 and 8 (26). Instead of letting the Nuggets shoot a three, the Suns fouled Billups intentionally and he netted both free throws. What a cover!

Tonight Tony Parker's player prop for points + assists is inflated to 31 1/1 because he's playing the Warriors. Like I said yesterday, Parker's gone OVER in six straight but this is the first game his number has been in the 30's. If I knew tonight's game were going to be close I'd jump all over Parker, but I have a feeling its going to be a blowout and Parker won't play much in the second half. Either way I don't think it's a bad bet.

The NIT has been doing a nice job of appetizing me until the big games on this weekend, and tonight I plan on betting on both of the quarter final games.

$$$$ Auburn -3 vs. Baylor

Up until the Big 12 tournament I had made a lot of money betting AGAINST Baylor almost every game they played on the road. I was probably 6-0 until I bet against them when they beat Kansas in the first round of their conference tournament. Since then they've been hot, murdering teams at home and on the road in the NIT. But this HAS TO STOP. And tonight it will against an Auburn team that has defended their home court as well as anyone the second half of the season. The Tigers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 at home. Baylor's streak ends tonight in blowout fashion.

$$$ Penn State + 10 1/2 @ Florida

I know it's tough to play in Gainesville, but this line should be covered by a Penn State team who does something that no team in the SEC has seen all season. THEY PLAY DEFENSE. I think Florida will still win the game, but Penn State will slow the tempo and make it close. Look for Taylor Battle's last second heroics to fall short tonight as the Gators win by 2.

Player Prop Me

From the words of George Costanza, "I'm back in business baby!" Kind of. Two weeks away from this site has allowed me to recollect and think about where I make the bulk of my money betting. It all changes really, (as does my "bulk") but lately I've made some nice bank on NBA player props. Every night I bet on two players to go OVER their set line. Those two are Chris Paul, who's usually around 34 1/2 total points + assists, and Tony Parker at either 23 points or 28 1/2 points + assists. Paul has gone over 4 of his last 5 games and Parker has gone over in 6 straight! This is easy money! Paul will always get near his number, and Parker's gonna keep on scoring as long as Ginobli is out.

Since I don't like many games today I'll give you a few play props to think about.

$$$$ Chauncey Billups OVER 27 1/2 points + assists @ Phoenix

Billups has average a combined 30 in his previous two games against Phoenix. The thing about the Suns is they don't like defense, so, they don't play any.

For the same reason I also like...

$$$$ Carmello Anthony OVER 23 points @ Phoenix

Anthony should easily reach his 22.3 PPG average tonight and if he doesn't then Chauncey is a lock for his over. Betting two players to have a slightly above average night against the worst defense in the league is a good way to hedge. One of these guys should hit. If we go 1-1, ehh, fine. But I can't see the Suns keeping both of them under their average.

TRAPLINE NOTE

To all trapliners:

I've been swamped with work and a bothered by a relentless cold/flu/fever for over a week. This site will be up and running again by MONDAY. Sorry for the recent time off!!


-Miyagi

Quick Picks

Hot streak came to an end last night after going 1-3 yesterday.

$$$$ Bucks - 3 1/2 vs. Knicks

$$$ Mavericks + 6 1/2 @ Phoenix

Picks here... get em while they're hot!

2-0 yesterday and a solid 10-3 on the week after yesterdays two NBA quick picks hit.

Today let's continue rolling in the NBA.

$$$$ Hornets - 1 1/2 @ Atlanta

Since the return of David West the Hornets have been almost unbeatable. They are the winner of 5 straight and tonight they will extend that streak in a near pick em against an overrated Hawks squad. Bibby will struggle like every other guard when in comes to guarding Chris Paul, and David West will contribute with another ho hum double double. Look for the Hornets to pull away late in the fourth and win by 5.

$$$$ St Mary.s +7 1/2 vs. Gonzaga

This is the WCC and a near must win for St. Marys who now has their all-American in Patty Mills back in the lineup. These teams have already met twice this year, both times Gonzaga won (by 2 and 7) and both times Mills was out. Actually St. Marys was ahead by 8 @ Gonzaga before he broke his hand just before half time. Even though St. Marys looked horrific last night against Portland (the main reason why the line is at 7 1/2) I think they cover and win outright.

$$$ Pistons +2 vs. Orlando

Orlando is coming off an impressive win against the still Garnet-less Celtics, now they have to go play a Detroit team who they lost to at home just weeks ago. The Pistons are playing like they used to be known for (Protecting home court, losing close and sometimes winning on the road) and will have no problem beating the Magic for the second time in two weeks.

$$$ Lakers - 2 1/2 @ Portland

Portland is young and good, but LA is wise and better. Look for Kobe to bring his A game against Brandon Roy and lead his team to a double digit victory.

Quick NBA Picks

2-0 yesterday, here's who I like today.

$$$$ Spurs - 4 1/2 vs. Phoenix

$$$$ Nets - 4 1/2 vs. Knicks

Weekend Update

2-1 yesterday on my quick picks brings us to 6-3 on the week. I was too caught up in Michigan's miraculous comeback and tourny clinching victory over Minnesota to make my early picks, so here's who I like later today.

$$$$ Kansas -8 vs. Texas

Texas is overrated to begin with and Kansas will be looking to take some aggression out after getting embarrassed early in the week by Texas Tech. Kansas beat Missouri by 30 in the Jayhawks last home game and they could do the same today against a poor Texas club. Look for the Jawhawks to win in a blowout.

$$$ Nebraskas +5 1/2 @ Baylor

I've made a living off betting against Baylor this year and I don't see any reason to stop. Nebraska is a much better team at home but I think they can hang around in this game if not win outright.


*** WARNING TRAPLINE ***

LSU +2 @ Aburn

It's hard not to like the best team in the SEC getting points to anyone in-conference, but this line feels too good to be true. Auburn is a lot like Washing State in that they have poor records but can beat almost anybody on their home floor. Auburn might be the best play here, but I'd stay away.