1-4 isn't bad right? Right?
Unacceptable. And if I had more than a dike from Chicago following my advice, I might actually feel bad. Maybe I'll start betting hockey, better yet, how about entertainment props? 5/8 on "Up in the Air" to win Best Picture? Lock City. Hey i hit Jen Hudson's National Anthem Over/Under during the Super Bowl last year, maybe I need to focus on more off-field wagers.
Naw. I know I can bet, I know what I'm doing. Tables will turn, and they will turn today, in Arizona.
Line: Green Bay -2 @ Arizona.
OVER/UNDER: 47
This line opened at Green Bay +3 at the beginning of the week, then went down a point a day as Boldin looked more and more unlikely to play. I tried going against the grain yesterday, thinking there wasn't going to be two blowouts identical to the previous weeks games and that maybe the Bengals and Eagles would make at least ONE ADJUSTMENT!!!! But it didn't happen. Those games aside, I've liked Green Bay all week, even giving two on the road. Boldin isn't expected to play, Warner is talking about retiring, the Cardinals, well, they know the season's done. Outside of Dallas, Green Bay has been the most impressive team down the stretch. They pass, they run, and they play great defense. Arizona can pass, that's it, and they're without their second best WR. Green Bay wins, you win, I win.
In the early game I'll be rooting for Ray Rice, that's it. His OVER/UNDER for catches is 4 1/2 and 35 receiving yards. I like both of those to go over the number. New England's bend-don't-break defense will allow short dump offs to Rice all day. Baltimore is going to try and slow the game down, meaning a heavy dose of Ray Rice.
Oh and when the future props are readjusted after today's games, I like the Chargers as an investment to win the AFC.
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Wild Cards and Boilermakers
A couple of NFL games and an onslaught of college basketball makes for nice day of betting. However, I must warn you that my mono is fading... take my advice at your own risk.
Lets start with the Bengals at home against the Jets.
LINE: Bengals -3 vs. Jets
OVER/UNDER 34
The Bengals were embarassed last week in New York. I mean pants down, cold water, embarassed. Carson Palmer completed 1 of 10 passes for -4 yards. The tolken team manager that every high school team in the country is using as a gimmick to get on Sporscenter could have chucked the pigskin for better numbers.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/highschool-basketball/Chubbs-special-for-Pioneers-58996
Does any of this concern me, considering I'm leaning towards the Bengals here? No. The Bengals are at home, and the Jets threw everything, including Rex Ryan's double decker fridge at them last week. The Jets revealed Brad Smith's wildcat running ability, and the Bengals refused to run against a poor Jet's run D to see what Palmer could do in the air against Revis. The Bengals will make adjustments and win. I think. Both teams will run the crap out of the ball which makes me believe this game has a legit chance to stay under the small 34 point spread. But, to play it safe I'll play the tease card. This is the bet I will be placing on BODOG.COM.
2 Team Teaser
Bengals +3
UNDER 40
Game two features another rematch from last week.
Cowboys -4 vs. Eagles
OVER/UNDER 45
This game was similiarly horriffic for the Eagles as they were also spanked and shutout by the home team. Dallas won both of the regular season meetings with ease, but (you know it's coming) it's NEVER easy to beat a team three times in a season, especially the Philadalphia Eagles. I know the Eagles don't have a running game, but no team does when they play Dallas. If you watched the game last week, you saw that McNabb didn't have trouble moving the ball down the field, they just made stupid turnovers and dropped pass after pass all game. They aren't going to make those mistakes this week. And given Andy Reid's success in the playoffs compared to the law firm of Romo and Wade, I think the Eagles +4 is enough to hold up in court any day. This will be a field goal game and it could go either way.
Eagles +4
And a little college hardwood bonus...
I like Michigan State -14 @ Iowa. State just received a scare from Wisconsin and they'll be looking to do to Iowa the same thing they did to Northwestern the last time they were on the road.
I also like Purdue to remain undefeated and their line of -1 @ Wisconsin. Purdue could easilly lose here. Nope, they couldn't. They're good.
Lets start with the Bengals at home against the Jets.
LINE: Bengals -3 vs. Jets
OVER/UNDER 34
The Bengals were embarassed last week in New York. I mean pants down, cold water, embarassed. Carson Palmer completed 1 of 10 passes for -4 yards. The tolken team manager that every high school team in the country is using as a gimmick to get on Sporscenter could have chucked the pigskin for better numbers.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/video/highschool-basketball/Chubbs-special-for-Pioneers-58996
Does any of this concern me, considering I'm leaning towards the Bengals here? No. The Bengals are at home, and the Jets threw everything, including Rex Ryan's double decker fridge at them last week. The Jets revealed Brad Smith's wildcat running ability, and the Bengals refused to run against a poor Jet's run D to see what Palmer could do in the air against Revis. The Bengals will make adjustments and win. I think. Both teams will run the crap out of the ball which makes me believe this game has a legit chance to stay under the small 34 point spread. But, to play it safe I'll play the tease card. This is the bet I will be placing on BODOG.COM.
2 Team Teaser
Bengals +3
UNDER 40
Game two features another rematch from last week.
Cowboys -4 vs. Eagles
OVER/UNDER 45
This game was similiarly horriffic for the Eagles as they were also spanked and shutout by the home team. Dallas won both of the regular season meetings with ease, but (you know it's coming) it's NEVER easy to beat a team three times in a season, especially the Philadalphia Eagles. I know the Eagles don't have a running game, but no team does when they play Dallas. If you watched the game last week, you saw that McNabb didn't have trouble moving the ball down the field, they just made stupid turnovers and dropped pass after pass all game. They aren't going to make those mistakes this week. And given Andy Reid's success in the playoffs compared to the law firm of Romo and Wade, I think the Eagles +4 is enough to hold up in court any day. This will be a field goal game and it could go either way.
Eagles +4
And a little college hardwood bonus...
I like Michigan State -14 @ Iowa. State just received a scare from Wisconsin and they'll be looking to do to Iowa the same thing they did to Northwestern the last time they were on the road.
I also like Purdue to remain undefeated and their line of -1 @ Wisconsin. Purdue could easilly lose here. Nope, they couldn't. They're good.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Pregame dead-arm original source of McCoy's injury
Well we teased the wrong line last night. Alabama didn't need any points against a McCoy-less Horns team and red zone turnovers usually kill unders (so do ruthless coaches who like to punch in a score with 59 seconds left to make the final score look like they were in complete control of the game).
1-1 wasn't the start I was looking for, but I could easily be 0-2 if McCoy could have overcame his brother's pre game dead arm. It turns out that the hit McCoy took from Alabama's 300 lb meat bag, Marcel Dareus, only re-aggravated his throwing arm which was first injured hours before kickoff when Colt's younger brother Case dead-armed him during a pre-game interview with Lisa Salters.
"When he said he couldn't feel his arm I believed him," said a remorseful Case. "I mean I hit him hard. I had my middle knuckle out and everything."
"He's going to get the biggest frogger when I get home," said McCoy.
Salter's denies comment on the incident. Witnesses say she pulled out a gun when she saw Colt being attacked.
"No, it was just her microphone," said one witness.
"Bull****!" "It was a f***ing gun!" Said another...
No picks tonight. Come back tomorrow for some NFL PLAYOFF LOCKS!
1-1 wasn't the start I was looking for, but I could easily be 0-2 if McCoy could have overcame his brother's pre game dead arm. It turns out that the hit McCoy took from Alabama's 300 lb meat bag, Marcel Dareus, only re-aggravated his throwing arm which was first injured hours before kickoff when Colt's younger brother Case dead-armed him during a pre-game interview with Lisa Salters.
"When he said he couldn't feel his arm I believed him," said a remorseful Case. "I mean I hit him hard. I had my middle knuckle out and everything."
"He's going to get the biggest frogger when I get home," said McCoy.
Salter's denies comment on the incident. Witnesses say she pulled out a gun when she saw Colt being attacked.
"No, it was just her microphone," said one witness.
"Bull****!" "It was a f***ing gun!" Said another...
No picks tonight. Come back tomorrow for some NFL PLAYOFF LOCKS!
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Teasing the BCS
I no longer need to use "snow" as an excuse to not go outside. Mono works just fine, and it's been kicking my butt for a week now. They say you carry the mono virus 2-3 weeks prior to feeling any symptoms. I asked my doctor if prognosticating the outcome of future events like the over/under in the MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL GAME or the spreads in a three team NFL TEASER were common amongst his other mono carriers. He said, "what the hell's a teaser?"
That's right. For the last three weeks I have been on a gambling tear and I give all the credit to mono. And since I still have it, I've decided to jump start Trapline until this Godsend departs.
And believe it or not, while carrying mono, I've fallen in love with a sexy little tease (Speaking in terms of betting of course). For those of you who aren't familiar with a sports tease, or "Teaser," it allows you to turn a line that you like into a line that you love. Here's a teaser of mine from this past weekend.
Houston -1 VS. New England
Chicago +3 @ Detroit
Carolina -3 VS. New Orleans
If you followed last weekends NFL lines, you might be wondering what sports book was offering these asinine spreads. Well, there wasn't one. (maybe an uncle or parlay happy moron). These games are all teased 6 points. I liked Houston to beat New England, but they were giving 7. I didn't think Chicago was going to lose to Detroit, but I knew if they did it would be a close game. They were originally -3, so I teased them 6 points to +3. And the Panthers were -9, and I felt much more comfortable with them by a field goal.
The only downside to teasing is the payouts. An ordinary three team parlay normally pays out a little over 5 to 1, a three team teaser will only payout around 1.8 to 1. I refuse to parlay unless the lines have been teased. I tell the same thing to my women.
"Betty, you don't have a chance with me until you're up to a mid-major C-cup. And you, Ruby Rugby? Call me when you're a size nine and that jock of yours looks more like a thong."
Not sure why I chose names from my grandmother's yearbook, but I'll definitely sit down and think about it.
Okay, enough tea-time, let's get to tonight's picks.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
SPREAD: ALABAMA - 4 1/2 vs. Texas
OVER/UNDER: 46
MY TAKE:
UNDER 46
Alabma (teased) + 3
Ehh, what a bummer of a game. Neither team intrigues me and Alabama's defense makes every team they play (including Florida) boring to watch. Unless you're 80 and love low scoring defensive battles, please don't tell me you're looking forward to this match up unless it's from a gamblers viewpoint. Look, Alabama should win this game but will they? I don't know. I don't think Texas's offense is good enough to put a lot of points up against the best D in the country, and I don't think Alabama's offense is good enough to put up points against Michigan. With that said, I think this game will finish safely under 46.
As for the Natty Champ? Alabama. Seeing Florida dismantle Cincy might have been a bad thing for me to watch, because it really made me think that much more highly of Bama. But, this is a technique I've employed while I've been on my hot streak. I look at how other conferences are holding up. Take the Mac for example. I watched Ohio lose to a dismal Marshall squad. When i saw that an okay S. Florida was only -3 to N. Illinois, I jumped on them because Ohio was one of the best teams in the MAC and had beaten N. Illinois with ease earlier in the year.
The Big 12 has faired well thus far, but I don't see Texas winning tonight. And if they do, it's not going to be by more than a field goal.
That's right. For the last three weeks I have been on a gambling tear and I give all the credit to mono. And since I still have it, I've decided to jump start Trapline until this Godsend departs.
And believe it or not, while carrying mono, I've fallen in love with a sexy little tease (Speaking in terms of betting of course). For those of you who aren't familiar with a sports tease, or "Teaser," it allows you to turn a line that you like into a line that you love. Here's a teaser of mine from this past weekend.
Houston -1 VS. New England
Chicago +3 @ Detroit
Carolina -3 VS. New Orleans
If you followed last weekends NFL lines, you might be wondering what sports book was offering these asinine spreads. Well, there wasn't one. (maybe an uncle or parlay happy moron). These games are all teased 6 points. I liked Houston to beat New England, but they were giving 7. I didn't think Chicago was going to lose to Detroit, but I knew if they did it would be a close game. They were originally -3, so I teased them 6 points to +3. And the Panthers were -9, and I felt much more comfortable with them by a field goal.
The only downside to teasing is the payouts. An ordinary three team parlay normally pays out a little over 5 to 1, a three team teaser will only payout around 1.8 to 1. I refuse to parlay unless the lines have been teased. I tell the same thing to my women.
"Betty, you don't have a chance with me until you're up to a mid-major C-cup. And you, Ruby Rugby? Call me when you're a size nine and that jock of yours looks more like a thong."
Not sure why I chose names from my grandmother's yearbook, but I'll definitely sit down and think about it.
Okay, enough tea-time, let's get to tonight's picks.
BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
SPREAD: ALABAMA - 4 1/2 vs. Texas
OVER/UNDER: 46
MY TAKE:
UNDER 46
Alabma (teased) + 3
Ehh, what a bummer of a game. Neither team intrigues me and Alabama's defense makes every team they play (including Florida) boring to watch. Unless you're 80 and love low scoring defensive battles, please don't tell me you're looking forward to this match up unless it's from a gamblers viewpoint. Look, Alabama should win this game but will they? I don't know. I don't think Texas's offense is good enough to put a lot of points up against the best D in the country, and I don't think Alabama's offense is good enough to put up points against Michigan. With that said, I think this game will finish safely under 46.
As for the Natty Champ? Alabama. Seeing Florida dismantle Cincy might have been a bad thing for me to watch, because it really made me think that much more highly of Bama. But, this is a technique I've employed while I've been on my hot streak. I look at how other conferences are holding up. Take the Mac for example. I watched Ohio lose to a dismal Marshall squad. When i saw that an okay S. Florida was only -3 to N. Illinois, I jumped on them because Ohio was one of the best teams in the MAC and had beaten N. Illinois with ease earlier in the year.
The Big 12 has faired well thus far, but I don't see Texas winning tonight. And if they do, it's not going to be by more than a field goal.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Thousand unit Power Plays
With the start of a new baseball season I've decided to change the way I rank my picks. My ratings will rank from 100 - 1000 units, incrementing by the hundred. Say I'm up 2200 units and you bet a dollar a unit, you would be up $2200. I'm thinking this will be an easier way for the both of us to keep track of how good/bad my profitably is.
Today I'm releasing two thousand unit plays.
$$$$$ 1000 $$$$$ Phillies -140 @ Colorado
Reigning CY young winner Cole Hamels is taking the mound for the Phillies, but more importantly, Jason Marquis gets the nod for the Rockies. Marquis posted a hittable 4.53 ERA last year with the Cubs which is right around his career average. He's a right handed pitcher who will try to make a living serving up meatballs in the smallest ballpark in the Majors, and he'll get the chance to do that today against a predominantly left hitting Phillies Club. You could give the 1 1/2 and get em at +130, but I'm going to play it safe here considering Colorado pummeled Brandon Webb last week.
$$$$$ 1000 $$$$$
Braves - 1 1/2 vs. Nationals
Derek Lowe had a great outing last week against the Phillies and should have no problem today with a poor Nationals club. Washington is off to an 0-3 start and the Braves jumped out of the gate quickly taking 2 of 3 in Philly last week. Lay the 1 1/2 as the Braves get it done with ease.
Today I'm releasing two thousand unit plays.
$$$$$ 1000 $$$$$ Phillies -140 @ Colorado
Reigning CY young winner Cole Hamels is taking the mound for the Phillies, but more importantly, Jason Marquis gets the nod for the Rockies. Marquis posted a hittable 4.53 ERA last year with the Cubs which is right around his career average. He's a right handed pitcher who will try to make a living serving up meatballs in the smallest ballpark in the Majors, and he'll get the chance to do that today against a predominantly left hitting Phillies Club. You could give the 1 1/2 and get em at +130, but I'm going to play it safe here considering Colorado pummeled Brandon Webb last week.
$$$$$ 1000 $$$$$
Braves - 1 1/2 vs. Nationals
Derek Lowe had a great outing last week against the Phillies and should have no problem today with a poor Nationals club. Washington is off to an 0-3 start and the Braves jumped out of the gate quickly taking 2 of 3 in Philly last week. Lay the 1 1/2 as the Braves get it done with ease.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Opening Day
I think and hope that North Carolina wins tonight, but with the way State is playing it's hard to bet against them. Equally, it's hard to bet against North Carolina so I'm avoiding the biggest game in college basketball and putting some money down on the ball diamond.
$$$$ Dodgers +130 @ San Diego
Jake Peavy takes the mound for the Padres today but that doesn't bother me. Peavy struggled in the WBC and at the end of the season last year and overall San Diego can't match up with the Dodgers. Pitching match ups are the key to betting on baseball, and although Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball, LA righty Hiroki Kuroda who posted a 3.7 ERA last year (a .373 in one outing against the Padres) will throw enough strikes to get the win. And strikes is all you need to throw against a poor hitting Padres team. Play the Dodgers + the money line.
$$$$ Arizona - 1 1/2 vs. Colorado
I don't need to say much more than Matt Holiday is no longer a Rocky and Brandon Webb gets the start against Aaron Cook. You could play the D-backs to win straight up at -160, but they should be able to assemble enough runs to win by more than one. Play the D-backs in an opening day shellacking.
$$$$ Dodgers +130 @ San Diego
Jake Peavy takes the mound for the Padres today but that doesn't bother me. Peavy struggled in the WBC and at the end of the season last year and overall San Diego can't match up with the Dodgers. Pitching match ups are the key to betting on baseball, and although Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball, LA righty Hiroki Kuroda who posted a 3.7 ERA last year (a .373 in one outing against the Padres) will throw enough strikes to get the win. And strikes is all you need to throw against a poor hitting Padres team. Play the Dodgers + the money line.
$$$$ Arizona - 1 1/2 vs. Colorado
I don't need to say much more than Matt Holiday is no longer a Rocky and Brandon Webb gets the start against Aaron Cook. You could play the D-backs to win straight up at -160, but they should be able to assemble enough runs to win by more than one. Play the D-backs in an opening day shellacking.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
PICKing on State
I like Tom Izzo a lot and would probably vote for him if he ran for President (I'd definitely vote for him if he ran for Governor), but I can't stand State fans. See your average State fan is the same as your die hard State fan. There is no difference because all State fans are alike. They are overwhelmingly subjective, bee sting whiny, and ridiculously uninformed when it comes to common sports knowledge outside of East Lansing.
Nine consecutive State fans called into one of the local talk radio programs here in Grand Rapids to predict how the Spartans would fare this weekend. All nine predicted that State would walk all over UConn and trounce North Carolina Monday night. And the thing about it was, there was no doubt in their minds that this is going to happen. One fan even had the audacity to complain about the spread of the game, saying "I can't believe that State isn't favored in this game. I just don't get it."
Nor do I get you, State fan... nor do I get you.
But I do like their coach, and their defense, and for them to cover against Uconn.
$$$$ State + 4 1/2 vs. Uconn
Hasheem Thebeet will be a factor in this game whether you State fans want to admit it or not. His presence alone will play much more into this game than the 50,000 + State fans who will be packing Ford field with there green and white seat cushions and matching fanny packs. But State's defense and coaching, like it always does, will keep them in the game and could possibly catapult them into the title game where they will get waxed by North Carolina... AGAIN. Play Izzo's team in a tight one.
NBA...
$$$$ Bucks -7 vs. Grizzlies
The Bucks are a good team at home (or at New Jersey) and they're playing a Grizzlies club who's good nowhere. The Bucks have picked up there play of late and should be able to produce a butt kicking against the Grizz. Take the Bucks to walk all over Memphis.
Nine consecutive State fans called into one of the local talk radio programs here in Grand Rapids to predict how the Spartans would fare this weekend. All nine predicted that State would walk all over UConn and trounce North Carolina Monday night. And the thing about it was, there was no doubt in their minds that this is going to happen. One fan even had the audacity to complain about the spread of the game, saying "I can't believe that State isn't favored in this game. I just don't get it."
Nor do I get you, State fan... nor do I get you.
But I do like their coach, and their defense, and for them to cover against Uconn.
$$$$ State + 4 1/2 vs. Uconn
Hasheem Thebeet will be a factor in this game whether you State fans want to admit it or not. His presence alone will play much more into this game than the 50,000 + State fans who will be packing Ford field with there green and white seat cushions and matching fanny packs. But State's defense and coaching, like it always does, will keep them in the game and could possibly catapult them into the title game where they will get waxed by North Carolina... AGAIN. Play Izzo's team in a tight one.
NBA...
$$$$ Bucks -7 vs. Grizzlies
The Bucks are a good team at home (or at New Jersey) and they're playing a Grizzlies club who's good nowhere. The Bucks have picked up there play of late and should be able to produce a butt kicking against the Grizz. Take the Bucks to walk all over Memphis.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)